April | 2012 | BioStocks

Busy Week Ahead

Things are starting to heat up again as the SPY recovered to a high of $140.79 on Friday. There are still a TON of cheap bios that have been beaten down recently that I expect bounce pretty nicely. There is also two PDUFA’s this week, PLX (5/1/12) and ALXA (5/4/12). I have been waiting a long time to play these and they both have the potential to allow massive gains. Here are the main plays for this week:

DCTH (Dethcath Systems Inc.)

This is one of the most oversold bio-techs right now due to the overall market weakness. I will be looking to add shares on any dips for a rebound back or above the $3.00 range. Playing it mostly for swing trades on market order dumps.

KERX (Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc.)

Last week KERX received positive results for Zerenex in Japan. I was long and sold my position on the spike up. I reentered on Friday with 1000 shares at 1.52 for another rebound with this good news. There is insider buying in this range as well. I fully expect it to push over $1.60 at least by Tuesday with a decent SPY.

PLX (Protalix BioTherapeutics Inc.)

The long-awaited PDUFA date for PLX is on Tuesday (5/1/12) and I have no position other than my 5, 7.5, 10 Butterfly. If it does get approved, I will be shorting and buying puts because I believe it will run-down fairly hard. If you haven’t checked out the Video Gameplan HERE is the link. With a near $600 Million market cap, I believe that approval is mostly priced in. There is no near term catalysts for anything else in their pipeline, and it is looking like it will pull back to the $6.00 range post-approval.

ALXA (Alexza Pharmaceuticals Inc.)

Another long-awaited PDUFA is ALXA. Their PDUFA is on Friday (5/4/12) and if it receives approval, it will spike very hard. It received a mixed Adcom vote and the decisions is very risky. I will be looking to liquidate my long positions this week to limit risk in case of an early decision. On an approval I will be shorting and possibly buying $1.00 put options.

CHTP (Chelsea Therapeutics International)

I will be buying this every time it dips down to the 2.01-2.03 range. With Martin Shkreli (hedge fund manager) in it very big, I don’t think he will let it fall any lower. It seems to have fallen in a channel of bouncing off this level, and it makes it very easy to swing.

Posted by bsifling, April 29, 2012, Tagged as , With 0

New Video Gameplan

Hello Everyone,

PLX has a PDUFA on 5/1/12 (Next Tuesday) and I plan on playing around the event. I have already filled my 5, 7.5, 10 “Butterfly,” but this is what I plan on doing post approval. You can view the video HERE. It is for members only, so if you have not signed up, make sure you take a moment and create an account. It’s FREE!

Posted by bsifling, April 28, 2012, Tagged as , With 0

This Weeks Watch List

It has been busier than ever lately, and I will have to make this weeks watch list a little shorter than usual. We have a lot of great plays developing, but the overall market weakness is making it VERY hard to become profitable. Here are a couple plays I will be focusing on next week that I believe will make me money:

PLX (Protalix BioTherapeutics)

I have been hearing rumors that there was a leak on a possible approval today for PLX. You can view the article HERE. I heard it was up 15.8% in Tel-Aviv (Foreign Exchange) today with huge volume of 742K (x6 average volume). I would expect PLX to go a little crazy tomorrow morning and possibly have a gap up. I have already filled my Options Game Plan that allows me to hold through the PDUFA with a guaranteed profit. I still might look into it as a day trade, because I strongly believe it can get over $7.00.

ALXA (Alexza Pharmaceuticals Inc.)

After heating up a little on Friday, it closed fairly strong. I expect the momentum to continue into the 5/4/12 PDUFA as more attention is drawn to the company. I’m still long 3400 shares at .61ish average, and I will be looking to add more if we get another dip below .58.

DCTH (Delcath Systems Inc.)

This is one of the most oversold bio-techs in my opinion compared to the recent ranges it has had. I have added a little on this downward spiral, and expect a strong pop to $3.00 or above with a decent $SPY. Just another classic range trade.

CHTP (Chelsea Therapeutics Int.)

I sold my entire position on the recent pop to 2.10. Look to add on dips to low 2.00 range and below. There are some big hedge fund managers behind it, and I do not expect them to let this one fall. They also had a conference on Friday, this might have something to do with the recent pop.

KERX (Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc.)

Another classic range trade, look to add this one the cheaper it gets. I’m long in the low 1.30′s. There is insider buying at this level and with a decent market I fully expect this thing to run to $1.50+.

Posted by bsifling, April 22, 2012, Tagged as , With 0

PLX Options Plan for Profiting Through 5/1/12 PDUFA

I have been researching a ton about options, and I have to say there are some GREAT opportunities that are overlooked because they are too complicated. Big thanks to @SteveJo22 for taking the time to teach me much about these ‘Voodoo’ option strategies. Many of us have been playing $PLX and its classic run-up into the 5/1/12 PDUFA. Those who had bought the $5.00 May Calls around the 1.30 level have some nice profits, but here is the plan I have been promising for months for those who are interested in something bigger:

As you can see here I limited my risk by selling (5) of the 5.00′s for an average of 1.96. Now, I used those profits to buy (4) of the 10.00′s for .30 each. I also shorted the (8) 7.50′s for an average of .80.

This is called a ‘Butterfly.’

1.) Long ‘x’ Number of Calls at 5.00

2.) Short ’2x’ Number of Calls at 7.50

3.) Long ‘x’ Number of Calls at 10.00

Now you can see that I have a minimum risk of +$307.66 that I walk away with if it were to not get approval, or happens to get bought out. However, if it hits my sweet spot of around 7.50 on 5/19/12 (Options Expiration), I will walk away with my massive profit of +$1305.40.

If you have any question, please feel free to contact me via email, twitter, or simply comment on the post.

Remember: If you need an Options Broker, I recommend Options House for its cheap commissions. By clicking HERE, you will also receive 100 FREE TRADES for opening an account.

Posted by bsifling, April 22, 2012, Tagged as , With 6

Options House

After the recent interest in successful options plays such as PLX and DSCO, I have been asked to send out my referral link to Options House. If you tend to use options, or just want cheaper commissions in general, this is the broker to go with. I personally use them and by using that link, you will receive 100 commission FREE trades. That alone is enough to save you a TON of money that is vital in starting small accounts. Check out their site and if you decide to sign up, please let me know and use the link provided.

Thank you.

Posted by bsifling, April 18, 2012, Tagged as , With 2

Five Potential Plays and an AMAZING Opportunity I was Presented With

After the market headed lower last week just as anticipated, it makes me less and less bullish to continue to take long positions into run-ups. This week I will be watching my longs extra close to lock in some profits in this shaky market. This market may get very hard to trade in the up-coming months compared to the last few months. Do not get in over your head, plan your trade, and trade your plan.

Over the last few weeks, I have been in contact with an investor that presented an amazing opportunity. His proposition was to let me trade an old account of his using my methods for two months, and I agreed. The net worth of the account was $9,064.00 when I started last week.

There was a couple of reasons why I decided to seize the opportunity, but the main reason was experience. The investor is very knowledgeable about not only the bio-tech sector, but in value investing as well. Trading his account would allow me to pick his brain, as well as expanding my trading strategies implementing some methods he has enlightened me about. I would also be gaining experience in taking larger position sizes, something I have not been able to do with my small accounts. (Which I have grown to a total of over $6,000 passing my 1 year target goal.) You will start to notice me taking some larger than normal position sizes, but I do not plan to trade any differently. The only thing that is going to change is the dollar amount. I will of course be updating my positions in real-time on Twitter (@BsiflingTrades) for not only my two personal accounts, but the third account as well.

Now, here are FIVE potential plays that I will be focusing on next week:

EXEL (Exelixis Inc.)

This has been a classic victim to the overall market pulldown and has been running down from $6.00 to a low on Friday of $4.76. I picked up 400 shares just before the close at $4.77 for a run into the ASCO abstracts, and I will be looking to add to my position on Monday. I am looking for at least a nice bounce to $5.00 or above to sell half my position, then ride the rest for the possible run-up.

ALXA (Alexza Pharmaceuticals Inc.)

What a crazy past week $ALXA put us through! After breaking its support and dropping to hit .50, I picked up some cheap shares to average down, and it climbed all the way back to the .60′s range. On Friday, Adam Feuerstein released a video entitled “The Next Big Thing in Bio-Techs.” This, along with Jason Napodano’s prediction on approval, coupled with a 100,000 share insider purchase, sent the stock spiking to .70. I dumped my entire position at .69 expecting a pullback that happened moments later. I re-bought my 2,000 shares at .6282 in ThinkorSwim and 700 more at .64 in Options House that I am going to try to hold longer term. If we see a minor dip I will be adding to my position in anticipation of more hype and momentum players pushing the sub $1.00 stock into its PDUFA. It would not be surprising to see it get to $1.00, just like we saw with $BPAX and $TLON.

PLX (Protalix BioTherapeutics Inc.)

After a minor pull back last week, it recovered to $6.30. I expect this to keep gaining attention as we get closer and closer to the 5/1/12 PDUFA. Watch for another dip, because I think it will be making another run to its recent highs if the overall market does not drag it down.

THLD (Threshold Pharmaceuticals Inc.)

Another victim to the overall market pullback, THLD has run down from its high of $9.07 to a low of $5.90 on Friday. I still own my April $5 Put Options from awhile back that I have written off as worthless, but because I still own them I might be going Long on the next dip. It is a low risk situation, If the share price goes up, I will have a nice gain, and my puts will still be worthless. However, if it continues to fall, my shares will be at a loss, but my Put Options will begin to gain back value. It might be worth a shot.

HZNP (Horizon Pharma Inc.)

This low floater has also fallen off its highs, and is still relatively cheap in my opinion. I just re-bought 200 more shares, and will be looking to add more. There is still a lot of time for it to run into its 7/26/12 PDUFA, which makes me worry that the overall market conditions might drag this down for a little. I will be watching it very closely.

Posted by bsifling, April 15, 2012, Tagged as , With 0

An Easter Sunday Watch List 4/8/12

I hope everyone is having a great Easter! We have got quite a week ahead of us, and as always it will be busy busy busy. I don’t have much time for this weeks watch list, so it is going to be a little shorter. Remember that this is just trading, do not let it interfere with family, or other more important things in life. There will always be another trade.

On another note, BsiflingTrades.com is now 100 members strong! Thank you to all who have signed up for FREE! Keep spreading the word!

Here are FOUR upcoming trades I am focusing on:

PLX (Protalix BioTherapeutics Inc.)

As the 5/1/12 PDUFA gets closer we should see some larger volume. I locked in some profits last week with the recent macro market weakness, but I still feel strongly that this thing will get +$7.00 very soon. Watch for any potential dips to re-enter small positions. Still working on the options plan I promised. It will be available soon.

YMI (YM BioSciences Inc.)

YMI continued to slip last week after my starter entry at $1.83. I will be looking to average down at these prices now that I have some free cash. This is one of the cheapest bios out there right now. It’s catalysts are still a while away (4 Qtr), and I am expecting it to gain strength the closer we get. However, this is just a range trade, not a run-up trade yet.

ALXA (Alexza Pharmaceuticals Inc.)

After selling 500 of my 2,000 shares at break-even last week to raise cash, the market weakness really hit this one. It seemed like it was very close to gaining momentum when the bios became a sea of red. I will be looking to buy another 1,000 shares a little cheaper.

TLON (Talon Therapeutics Inc.)

TLON voted to increase their authorized share count from 350mil to 600mil. This was as expected, and rumor has it that whoever was pushing for the share count increase, also had the right to more than 70% of the votes. This could get us the panic we were looking for. I will be looking to enter a position for the run-up into the 5/13/12 PDUFA.

Posted by bsifling, April 8, 2012, Tagged as , With 0

Self Improvement

I have added a ‘Self Improvement’ page to the website to enhance the experience for all members. Many of you know I am a VERY strong believer in using everyday as a learning opportunity and utilizing my time to develop myself as not only a trader, but as a person.

The goal of this new page is to share ideas on how I am working towards my consistent improvement. I will also be posting personal projects like personality changes, sleep schedules, and my most recent, ‘The Yes Man.’ There will be a post later detailing my journey and updates will be posted on any major events, etc.

Little insights will be added along the way as I continue my development into a well-rounded individual. This could be anything from physical fitness and eating habits, to time management and trading tips.

Make sure you keep updated on the posts, and let me know if you personally took any of the advice and how it worked for you. Feel free to contact me on twitter, or via email Brett@BsiflingTrades.com. I love feedback, let me know what you think!

Posted by bsifling, April 2, 2012, Tagged as , With 0

Watch List and Market Recap

What a week! Friday brought an end to the trading month of March and the official end to the 1st quarter of 2012. We have seen a complete change in market momentum since the end of last year and things have continued to run up until last week. We saw a huge come-back of financial and bio-tech stocks, but we are starting to see the macro market lose steam and it is rubbing off on the speculative bio-techs. Although there are still many runners, red began to pop up my screen, a color I haven’t seen in a while. With the $SPY dipping below 140 I decided it was the best decision to liquidate some long positions and lock in some nice profits from recent run-ups.

This gave me a realized profit of +$1284.15, a 29.11% total gain in my account for the month of March.

This doesn’t mean that this recent bull run is over, in fact I hope it doesn’t because EVERYTHING is running! I am just playing it on the safe side. We continue to have busy weeks, and this week is no different. Here are FOUR possible plays for next week:

ALXA ( Alexza Pharmaceuticals Inc.)

I am pretty sure that $ALXA has been one of the most boring, side-ways trading stocks for the last few weeks. With a 5/4/12 PDUFA date we should get a lot of momentum this month. The promoters love these penny stocks with catalysts such as $BPAX and $TLON. Even though the sentiment is very negative for an approval, the plan is to hold until the hype and manipulation start. I am long 2,000 shares at .61, and will look to adjust my position accordingly as we approach near the catalyst date. This could easily take off to the $1.00 mark, but as you all know I like to take profits quickly and will probably chicken out way before that happens. I am going to test my patience with this one, and hold at least half for a little larger than my normal gain target of $200.

AVII (AVI BioPharma Inc.)

HUGE thanks to @SteveJo22 for translating a lot of this DD into plain english! On Friday $AVII surprised everyone and said that they will be having a CC on Monday morning releasing the results of their DMD study. Before, they were suppose to release it ‘late April,’ but luckily I have no position. If the news is positive, which I believe it will be, I will be looking to short at or near the $5.00 range. They have already tested the treatment with lower doses and history proves that when a company puts out a Friday PR like that, the news tends to be positive. However, you can never be sure. IF they get approval, here is why I think they will rundown, or sell on the news. The DMD market is very small, but they will charge a lot for the treatment. Only 1 / 4,000 boys are born with DMD. 83% of those are eligible for exon skipping treatment, and 16% of those are eligible for exon 51 skipping treatment. The thing is, $GSK (Prosensa) is well underway with running a P3 trial for a similar exon 51 skip drug, which means $AVII will be second to this market and several years behind. AND lets not forget that $AVII already has a 100 million dollar shelf. After a price spike they would likely dilute to raise cash and run a P3 trial, which could cause the share price to slip. I will be very careful shorting this, keeping my stops tight just incase this decides to act like $MAPP or $AMLN.

PLX (Protalix BioTherapeutics Inc.)

PLX has had a great recent run and my May $5 calls have rocked! I sold 3 of the 9 I had at 1.95 to lock in some profits and look for another possible entry. I had a semi hefty position so I decided to limit my exposure to make sure I wasn’t caught in an early CRL. Now that we are getting closer to the 5/1/12 PDUFA we should get a lot more volume and another run after the small mid-week dip that it has already recovered from. The run-up has just started, and this could very easily get over $7.00+. I am still working on an options plan that will allow me to hold through the PDUFA with no risk and a large profit if approved. When I have worked out the details, I will gladly share it, most likely in the next week or two.

DEXO (Dex One Corp.)

We have been destroying this stock, it is like a personal ATM. The dumb money and Yahoo message board idiots are transferring money directly into our accounts over and over again. Last week was filled with down grades from the S&P and Moody, mostly because of the debt restructuring deal. On Friday, we got the end of day run we always look for, but this time it was accompanied by an upgrade to ‘CCC’ by the S&P. This was complexly predictable, they even said it in the PR of the former down grade. If this breaks towards 1.50, I will be looking to short it back down to the lower $1.00 range. If it dips, I will pick up these cheap shares AGAIN, and flip them AGAIN. Look for this thing to go either way and keep playing the range. The price action is very predictable.

Posted by bsifling, April 1, 2012, Tagged as , With 2